Berger Paints India Ltd is the third largest paint manufacturer and the second largest decorative paint player in India. The company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of decorative and industrial paints and coatings.

The monthly Log chart where we see that prices overall have been on an upward journey. No doubt there have been lengthy periods of decline after conquering new peaks, but those have been used wisely to buy into, thereby giving rise to a strong advance each time. The sharp rally since mid 2003 led prices to breach a strong primary rising top-totop trendline (green line) and rocketed to a high of 68.5 during Jan 08. Topping out there owing to market pressure and on heavy profit booking prices collapsed, retracing about 62% of the prior entire rally. This support was combined with the rising trendline, which was earlier a strong resistance. Managing to bottom out at a low of 26 during Oct 08, prices bounced back from the double supports in the following months.

This pullback from the low has been highlighted in detail in the weekly chart appended below. We can see that prices since the decline in Jan 08, had been constantly struggling to exceed the 30-period EMA. Also we can see that since March 08, prices had been witnessing some good accumulation, forming a nice pattern along the way.

The pick up from Nov 08 onwards finally led prices to breach the moving avg region and with a steady rise thereafter, prices moved up smartly to complete the

pattern at 67-68 levels. Unable to breakout decisively from there had pushed prices into a sideways range bound phase for a long period of 9 months. On the downside, the moving avg was doing a splendid job of holding prices up and not letting them slip lower. Last weeks sharp rise has finally broken beyond this phase and closed higher. This was followed by RSI exiting 60 and moving into bullish zone. Volumes were huge during the breakout, indicating excellent bullish participation.

With the trend looking set for some fresh rallies ahead, buying can be considered now or dips to 66-65 for target of 105-08 (pattern target) / 130-34.

Source : IDBI Capital

Long Term Investment: Berger Paints India Ltd. : IDBI Capital is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Short-Term Investments – Unichem Laboratories Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – Amara Raja Batteries Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – ITC Ltd – IDBI Capital
• Medium term view – West Coast Paper Mills Ltd. : IDBI Capital
• Medium term view – Divis Laboratories Limited : IDBI Capital
• Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd – RCF – IDBI Capital

Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. (BRFL) is one of the leading, vertically integrated textile companies in India. They are having a strong presence across the entire value chain of design, yarn dyeing, weaving, fabric processing, garment manufacturing and retail. The company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a variety of fabrics, garments and home textiles. A flagship company of the Bombay Rayon Group, it was incorporated on May 21, 1992, became a public limited company on Oct. 13, 1992, and got its current name on Sep. 30, 2004.

This textile counter was off to a flying start since its listing on the bourses during December 2005. On the long term charts prices were maintaining a series of higher bottoms, holding support of a nice primary rising trendline (orange line). From the low of 80 in Dec 05, prices covered excellent distance to reach a high of 418 by May 08.

Topping out there prices slipped into its usual round of correction, moved down to hold support near the same rising trendline and bounced back once again July 08 onwards. However this time around, with the market being in a highly negative mode, prices failed to register new highs. Instead, forming a lower top due to selling on ral- lies, prices collapsed yet again Sept 08. The fall from that high of 392 was so razor sharp that prices never thought twice before slicing past the strong primary trendline and moved to test the prior low of 80. With the level giving good support, prices finally bottomed out from the prior run and staged a fresh rally in March 09. The equally sharp rise led prices to swiftly pullback about 50% of the earlier decline but the retracement at 236, of the falling swing Sept 08-March 09 capped the gains and pushed prices into a fresh fall in June 09.

From the chart below we see that a quick pick up from the lows the following month led prices to rally up well but they were never able to get past the 50% retracement region of 236. Prices fell into a symmetrical triangle pattern formation. The black line on the charts is the lower end of the formation where prices are seen maintaining a neat higher bottom series. RSI in the last many months has been moving between 40-60 region, waiting for a nice opportunity to burst out. This will happen only with a firm breakout in prices from 236 levels. With the setup on both price and momentum looking good and indicating possibilities of a breakout, we advise buying above 236-40 for rally towards 322-25 where a double resistance lies and past that at around 400-05.

Long Term Investment: Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. IDBI Capital is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd – RCF – IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – Unichem Laboratories Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – Amara Raja Batteries Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Medium term view – Finolex Inds Ltd. : IDBI Capital
• Long Term Investment: Berger Paints India Ltd. : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – ITC Ltd – IDBI Capital

Amongst all the PSU Banks, one of the stock which was seen depicting some good pattern on the Technical charts is Central Bank. We have been having an eye on this stock for quite some time but it had remained very much range bound and therefore the movement in this one was a bit slow. However the inherent bullishness is reflected on the higher degree charts as the stocks has been successfully managing to hold on to the multiple supports (trend line and moving averages). This also clearly indicates the consistent buying pressure fueling the prices at lower levels and confirming the bullish prospects of the stock.

This can be made out from the weekly chart appended alongside, where prices have been forming an accumulation pattern,highlighting excellent and strong trend in progress. The stock made its debut in August 2007. However failing to meet expectations of its market participants, immediately slipped lower. Level 156 was the top made as the rising attempt in Jan 2008 turned futile and the stock slipped into a sharp corrective phase.

The decline turned to be severe one when the prices came down even breaking its listing low and touched a low at 32 in December 2008. However the optimism was reflected as although the prices threatened to break below these levels some demand at lower levels helped them to bounce back and produce some pullback rallies since March 09. The underlying trend started growing stronger as the series of minor higher tops and bottoms helped the scrip to shift its bias on bullish side and complete a nice rounding pattern near 160 levels by start o Oct 09. But the presence of strong supply near this level kept the

rise restricted over past 4 months leading to some range bound moves in this one. All this can be clearly seen in the form of upper shadows near 160-65 region. No doubt that only a volume led action above this level will bring in some directional moves into the trend. But the big picture is positive with the prices nicely maintaining a sequence of higher highs and lows above 13 period MA and also a trend line. The momentum on the RSI oscillator is also in line with the affirmative development seen in the prices thereby adding more strength to the trend. Active buying is continuing to exist during all the corrective dips and we advise our readers to do the likewise. A strong breakout from the pattern above 165 will open more room for new higher targets. This would be around 200-220 level at the Minimum. Periodic dips will no doubt be seen but such fall should be used to buy in to this stock.

One may also keep an ear to the ground to pick up some news that may further help to boost the trend in this stock. Pattern target comes around 300. Important levels to watch out for are at 242-262.

Long Term Investment: Central Bank is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Short-Term Investments – Unichem Laboratories Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – Amara Raja Batteries Ltd : IDBI Capital
• Long Term Investment: Berger Paints India Ltd. : IDBI Capital
• Short-Term Investments – ITC Ltd – IDBI Capital
• Medium term view – West Coast Paper Mills Ltd. : IDBI Capital
• Medium term view – Divis Laboratories Limited : IDBI Capital

• Strong Network and Pedigree: AHEL has the largest chain of hospitals in India with 41 hospitals and over 8000 beds under management. The company has a strong network with a presence in all the major cities in India including Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkatta, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad.

• Changing Industry Dynamics: According to WHO the expenditure on Healthcare in India is 4.8% of GDP which is lower than that of other emerging economies like Brazil (7.6%) China (5.6%) and Mexico (6.2%). Moreover there has been a shift in the industry dynamics with private hospitals providing 80% of the total services in India. Given the growth in per capital income and middle class in India private hospitals are bound to grow as the public hospital infrastructure is already stretched.

• High Barriers to Entry: The healthcare Industry has high barriers to entry as it is an asset heavy model. Heavy investments are required in building infrastructure including land, building and equipment. Moreover branding, skilled personnel and quality of service are very important components of the business. All these factors ensure high barriers to entry in the business.

• Consolidation in the Healthcare Industry: Given the smaller sizes of most of the private hospitals in India we expect increasing consolidation in the Industry as the larger corporate healthcare companies take over smaller and mid sized stand-alone hospitals. The consolidation process has already started with Fortis Healthcare acquiring a string of hospitals in CY07 including Escorts heart Hospital and L.N. Hiranandani Hospital. and would gather momentum over the next few years.

• Increasing penetration of health Insurance to drive industry growth: As of 2006 only 14% of the Indian Population is covered by health insurance. With the opening up of the insurance sector to private players the health insurance business has been showing huge growth due to the introduction of cashless claim facility and health insurance by employers on behalf of their employees. With the increasing penetration of health insurance the demand for quality healthcare services are bound to grow manifold.

• Medical tourism to be a key growth driver: The concept of Health tourism has been gaining momentum. Moreover given the cost benefits India has been emerging as a major destination for Medical tourism. As per Industry data 180,000 patients had arrived in India in 2004 for medical treatment and the total size of the industry is estimated at USD 333mn in 2004. It is estimated that medical tourism would become a USD 2bn opportunity by 2012. Medical tourism would be one of the key growth driver for the hospital industry and would present a big opportunity to private hospital like AHEL.

• Valuations: Given the strong growth prospects and market leader status we think that the current market price does not capture the full value and company deserves a re rating. At CMP the stock is trading at 22.8x FY09E and 18.6x FY10E. We rate the stock a Market Out-Performer with a target of Rs. 635 (25x FY10E), which translates into a 34.5% upside.

Apollo Hospitals Ltd. – Stock Talk is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• What is KYC norms ?
• Budget 2010 : Paper: Retain customs duty on paper at 10%
• Lodha group set to erect World’s Tallest Residential Tower at Worli, Mumbai
• JP Associates to float IPO of Jaypee Infratech
• United Bank IPO Analysis, Updates, Company Profile, Risk and Concern Outlook and Much more
• Budget 2010 : Textiles: Slash excise duty on Man Made Fiber (MMF)

Result Analysis: Infosys Technologies is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Sensex up 0.9%; Infosys hits all-time high
• Robust US sales likely to boost revenues at IT firms
• Infosys –Buy- Prabhudas Lilladher
• Infosys -Accumulate- Angel Broking
• Markets extend losses to 2%; banks lead fall
• Sell Satyam – Accumulate Infosys: Edelweiss

Financial Summary

Key Points
•	GRM’s in refining business are flat on a quarterly basis: The refining business of RIL showed good performance during the quarter with GRM’s rising from $ 13bbl to $ 15.5/bbl yoy. However on a qoq basis GRM’s are flat due to differential between crude and distillates being flat. EBIT margins in the refining business stood at 9.9% against 10% in 3QFY08 and 10.8% in 4QFY07. For the quarter the refinery division clocked revenues of Rs. 286.9bn up by 36% yoy and reported an EBIT of Rs. 28.4bn an increase of 25% yoy.
•	Petrochemicals division drags profitability during the quarter: The petrochemicals division was a drag on profitability in the second quarter as compared to 3QFY08. However on a yoy basis there was a slight improvement in profitability. Segmental EBIT was up by 6% yoy at Rs. 14.7bn but on a qoq basis EBIT dropped by 17.5%. EBIT margins for the quarter stood at 10.4% as against 11% in 4QFY07 and 14% in 3QFY08. During the quarter there was a pressure on margins on account of higher feedstock prices namely naptha.
•	RPL refinery to be completed ahead of schedule: Reliance Petroleum Ltd. has achieved 90% overall progress in implementation of its refinery and the management expects completion of its project ahead of its Dec-08 schedule. Moreover the development work on the KG-D6 block is on schedule for production in 2HFY09 but there is still lack of clarity on the dispute between Reliance Industries and RNRL over gas pricing formula.

Courtesy : HDFC Bank

Reliance Industries Ltd. [ RIL ] is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Reliance Inds Q1 net up 32% on higher gas output
• Sensex ends with modest gains; TCS surges 6%
• Improved refining margins, KG basin gas output may boost RIL
• RIL –Buy- Angel Securities
• Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to buy shale gas asset in US
• Mukesh Ambani takes aim at $160 bn EV for Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)

FMCG leader Hindustan Unilever Limited has seen some good buying coming in with an increase in the volumes and momentum. This clearly indicated that the investors are responding to the stock inspite of the market not giving a clear trend and this seems to be a good signal for the stock.

Moving to the technical picture on the monthly chart, we find that prices have been exhibiting a nice renewed move after having formed a broad lateral range over the past few months and now making all attempts to breakout higher.

The stock after making its top at 315 levels (ex-split & ex-bonus) in Feb 00, made lower tops and lower bottoms on the monthly charts. Prices dropped sharply and touched a low of 100 in August 04 led by some negative news from the company front and major research houses flashing a sell report on the stock. From hereon, the stock steadied down and attempted to move up afresh. After having maintained a super rally since then, prices during the latter half of 2005 started making some fresh attempts to overcome the primary descending trendline resistance drawn from the 315 top. Some volume led buying activity and good confirmation of this effort saw prices move up smartly. In doing so prices also managed to surpass the preceding two lower tops and went on to make a new swing top of 296 levels in April 06. This uptrend was arrested by the way of market crash in May 06. The stock lost its steam as investors choose to exit from the stock and collecting some fat profits in the bargain. Prices by early March 07 had plunged to test the 61.8% retracement of the prior rising swing (100-296) and shifted to a lateral phase. Lack of ownership led to no major impact on the prices during the Jan 08 crash. Some renewed buying interest emerged in the stock, mainly by index funds and in the bargain the stock managed to witness gains on a month on month basis and over performed the index. Prices on the short term are forming a broad fractal accumulation pattern, which reaffirms long term bullish outlook.

On the oscillators front the monthly readings depict a positive picture. The MACD has seen a positive cross over. Also the CCI has moved into the positive zone suggesting that the current upmove is likely to persist. On the daily charts, the stock seems to have hit some resistance around the 240-245 areas which is a crucial hurdle to cross if the stock has to move up. The Price ROC oscillator continues to retain the positive ground and holding above the zero regions – an
important support zone. So putting together, we can conclude that overall picture on the higher and lower degree charts in terms of price and momentum are in good health. Chances are good that the prices may continue moving from current levels or even from dips towards 220 levels.

Target to look at is 286 / 315-25 / 350.

LONG TERM INVESTMENT REVIEW: HINDUSTAN UNILEVER is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• Hindustan Unilever –Hold- Sharekhan
• Top 10 firms gain Rs 53, 000 cr last week

Go Long : PRITISH NANDY COMMNUNICATION is a post from: Indian Stock Market Tips

• What is KYC norms ?
• Budget 2010 : Paper: Retain customs duty on paper at 10%
• Lodha group set to erect World’s Tallest Residential Tower at Worli, Mumbai
• JP Associates to float IPO of Jaypee Infratech
• United Bank IPO Analysis, Updates, Company Profile, Risk and Concern Outlook and Much more
• Budget 2010 : Textiles: Slash excise duty on Man Made Fiber (MMF)